Why would Kirchnerism be better off suspending the STEP in the Province

While the bulk of the Peronist governors of the Interior propose to suspend the PASO this year and the toughest Kirchnerism internally resists the move from the province of Buenos Aires, a report warns that precisely that force in Buenos Aires should be the main one interested in getting around that first electoral stop. Why? Because in the last four electoral processes in the district there was a decrease compared to its rivals between the primaries and the general election. In comparison, he lost votes and potential seats.

The study that gets into the controversy is from Synopsis, a consulting firm created in 2015 that publishes monthly reports on the political and economic situation. And within the framework of those measurements, it presents documents with some particular topics. Like this.

The work of the firm led by the political scientist Lucas Romero it’s based on official data. And he compares the performances of Kirchnerism – with the different names that it was taking – between the PASO and the general election. How many votes did he get in each one and how many legislators would he have obtained in the primaries and how many he finally obtained in the election that fixed the distribution.

The difference in votes

To do your analysis, Synopsis It first presents a table detailing the votes of Kirchnerism in the provincial legislative elections in 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019. In the first two cases as Front for Victory, then as Citizen Unit and finally how Front of All. It confronts them with those of their main rivals: Renovating Front, Let’s change and Together for Change.

In the four processes, the trend was similar. Kirchnerism grew in number of votes between the primaries and the general elections, but its rivals did so even more. Roughly, the participation of voters in the second round tends to increase and there is less supply in the dark room due to the forces that did not pass the minimum cut of the PASO. But Those bigger votes to be distributed go more to rivals than to Kirchnerism.

The campaign of the Front for Victory in 2013. Hard defeat of Martín Insaurralde, against the Renovador Front of Sergio Massa.  The gap widened between the PASO and the general.  AFP photo

The campaign of the Front for Victory in 2013. Hard defeat of Martín Insaurralde, against the Renovador Front of Sergio Massa. The gap widened between the PASO and the general. AFP photo

Some examples: In 2013, the list of Buenos Aires deputies that was attached to the national one that Martin Insaurralde obtained 2,655,696 votes in the primary and the Renewal Front that was referenced in Sergio Massa, 2,862,506. In the general of the same year, the Front for Victory grew to 2,822,250 and Massismo, to 3,607,667. One totaled 166,554 and the other, 745,161. The gap widened.

In 2017, when Cristina Kirchner leading the ballot for the national Senate, something more symbolic happened. In the PASO, Unidad Ciudadana won its section for the upper house by a few votes – after a very controversial count, due to delays – and in the general lost. For the provincial Legislature, meanwhile, Let’s change the difference for both cameras.

The report, entitled “The impact of the PASO on Buenos Aires politics,” begins with a differentiation of “the identity of the Peronist vote vs. the identity of the non-Peronist vote”. He explains it like this:

Difference of votes between the PASO and the general

– “To understand electoral behavior it is useful to discriminate between a positive political identity, which defines a membership – and an eventual electoral support – by adherence to the ideas or programs that are promised in the electoral offer, and a negative identity that defines their electoral will guided by the rejection of an electoral offer, and not by adherence to the ideas or programs offered in the chosen electoral offer. This distinction applies very well to discriminate voter behavior Peronist / Kirchnerist, who has their identity defined and this defines their electoral will, and the behavior of the non-Peronist voter who is usually guided more by the possibility of blocking the triumph of Peronism than by the interest of promoting the triumph of this or that offer electoral”.

– “Faced with this behavior, primaries have an ordering effect on the non-Peronist votesince they offer the electorate precise information regarding which of all the rival offers are in the best position to win the election to the space that is rejected. Due to this phenomenon, if one reviews the behavior of voters in the last four elections in the province of Buenos Aires in the category of provincial legislator, it is observed that Peronism / Kirchnerism has a hard time increasing its electoral flow between the PASO and the Generals, while its main non-Peronist rival offering (or anti kirchnerista, as in 2013) collect the influx of voters who, guided by a utilitarian sense of their vote (useful vote), decide to migrate towards the most competitive offer to beat Peronism “.

– “In this way, it is observed that, between PASO and General, he main rival that circumstantially Peronism / Kirchnerism has faced in each of the scenarios, has always grown above 20% with respect to what was obtained in the Primaries, while Peronism / Kirchnerism only in 2017 could grow with double digits in that period, driven by the migration of voters from Florencio Randazzo, who, driven by the meager result, preferred to vote for the most competitive Peronist offer “.

The difference in benches

As a second central frame, the study details how many benches would Kirchnerism and its main rival have obtained for the Buenos Aires cameras according to the results of the STEP and how many they finally got. The balance is always negative for the K. In the legislative 2013 “lost” 5 seats between primary and general; 2015, 3; in 2017, 1; and in 2019, 2. There were 5 senators and 6 deputies who could not finally add.

As the report concludes, this is due to the “ordering effect” that PASO have in opposition spaces. And he warns for this year’s election:

Difference of benches between PASO and general

– “With a view to the 2021 legislative election, it is important to note that it is highly likely that the opposition electoral offer will be divided into several options. If one of those opposition spaces manages to show a considerably higher vote volume than the rest, could receive the migration of voters that they prefer favors the option that is better able to beat Peronism / Kirchernism. “

– “In this context, a PASO election would favor the majority opposition force, which would fulfill the role of collect useful vote that, between the primaries and the generals, he emigrates from opposition forces with little flow of votes to the majority opposition force “.

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