Between 16 and 20 named storms will form over the Atlantic in 2021, of which only between seven and ten will form hurricanes according to what the meteorological services company Accuweather reported on Monday.
The team of meteorologists, led by Dan Kottlowski who has more than 45 years of experience, believes that the most affected territories will be the United States, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. It is estimated that between three and five storms will hit this year.
Of the storms expected for this year that will become hurricanes, between three and five will be category three, four or five on the Saffir-Simpsons scale. The maximum sustained winds in these categories will reach a speed of 178 km or more.
Although 2021 will be a year above “normal” in terms of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic, but it will not reach the end of 2020, according to the report published today by Accuweather.
In the 2020 season, the most active in history, there were 30 named storms, thirteen of them hurricanes and six of these major. Last year was a record, not only because of the amount of activity, but because the United States suffered twelve direct hits, three more than in 1916, which had the previous record for more hurricanes in the country.
The meteorological company mentions in its report a study by Brian McNoldy, from the University of Miami (UM), on the period 1991-2020 that establishes that A “normal” season is one with 14 storms and seven hurricanes emerge from them and three of them reach the category of major 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale.
“Current indications point to a new season above normal and that can translate into high impacts in the US,” said Kottlowski.
Among the factors that the Accuweather team of meteorologists have taken into account for their forecasts are the climatic fluctuations in the Pacific known as El Niño and La Niña, which produce changes in the temperatures of that ocean.
“The big question now is whether La Niña will be present in the latter part of the hurricane season,” which goes officially from June 1 to November 30Although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is studying whether to advance its start, given that storms have been appearing before for years.
“If that happens, it certainly could increase the chance that we will see more than 20 storms.”Kottlowski said.
The company indicates, on the other hand, that the temperature of the water in the Atlantic is already above normal and there are “worrying signs” in the western part of that ocean.