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The second electoral round in Ecuador shows tight forecasts and indecision

Quito, Apr 1 (EFE) .- One week after the end of the electoral campaign for the second presidential round in Ecuador, on April 11, the polls reveal a tight bid between the correista Andrés Arauz and the conservative Guillermo Lasso, and a persistent indecision.

The latest survey released on Wednesday by the firm Cedatos, placed the indecision of the electorate at 28.8%, a percentage that rises to 32.9% among those under 25 years of age, at least until this Tuesday, the date on which the study.

In the first round held on February 7, Arauz, 36 years old and political heir to former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017), won widely with 32.72% of the votes counted, while Lasso, 65 years old, was made with 19.74%, according to official results.


The polls until the middle of the month gave the former the winner in the ballot, but as the final election approaches, he seems to be losing support.

This is clear at least from the results of this pollster attached to Gallup International and which was persecuted by the Correa Executive, which places Lasso as the winner in the second round with 52% support, compared to Arauz who would achieve 48% .

Although the polls in the country in the last electoral processes do not finish hitting with their predictions, in part because they are hired by the parties themselves, on the eve of this decisive vote the presidential debate held on March 21 could have had its weight.

The demoscopic company Comunicaliza prepared an independent analysis for the international consulting firm Atrevia, which indicates that this debate, sponsored by the National Electoral Council (CNE), would have changed the dominant trend and turned the tables, slightly benefiting Lasso over Arauz .

The political confrontation was followed to a different extent by 78% of the population, and 51.3% of those interviewed said they perceived Lasso as the winner, compared to 48.7% who thought it was Arauz.

In a detailed report released on Tuesday, the consulting firm analyzes the results of different polls and points out that in the last four polls published – that of Cedatos was unknown – “the trend is broken and Guillermo Lasso would be in first place with 1.13 points about Arauz “.

Until March 29, in direct vote Arauz would be agglutinating 32.7% and Lasso 33.9%, while 17.1% of voters are undecided, and the white and null vote adds up to 16.2%.

If only those who declared that they will vote are taken into account, the poll reveals that the conservative would obtain 37.5% of the electorate’s favor, while the correista would obtain 36.5%.

The data indicate that Lasso managed to reach the young public with the debate and add votes in the main cities of the country, Quito and Guayaquil, where he has his main fishing ground.

For its part, Arauz enjoys very marked support in Manabí, the rest of the coastal region and the Amazon.


The leader of the Pachakutik indigenous political movement, Yaku Pérez, who dropped the presidential race by obtaining 19.39% of the vote, 35 hundredths below Lasso, has asked his followers to vote for a null vote after unsuccessful requests to the authorities to a new recount of votes from the February elections, in which it considered that there was electoral fraud.

The vote in Ecuador is not endorsable, and while it is not known how the electorate will respond to that call, some of the members of that same party have already taken part for one of the two candidates.

“I will vote null because neither of the two (candidates) convinces me, I don’t think they are suitable to be presidents of Ecuador,” Consuelo Curillo, a street vendor in the north of Quito, told Efe.

As priorities, he believes that the future government must end corruption and create jobs and better education, “because there are many children who are without schools, without universities and lack of sources of work.”

It remains to be seen how the indigenous sector and Pérez voters will respond to his call to void.

The political analyst Santiago Basabe predicted in March that the most ideological 15% will opt for the null; Another 15% of Pérez’s supporters will support what he asks; 20% close to the indigenous leaders Jaime Vargas and Leonidas Iza, who channeled the social protest in Ecuador in 2019, will go to Arauz, and another 50% will seek other avenues.

Marco Antonio Alvarez, a 68-year-old resident of the capital, admits that he is not convinced by “any of the candidates” whom he accuses of practicing “politicking” with the sole interest of “political profit.”

For his part, Mario Fernando Villacrés, a 54-year-old from Quito, explains that he will vote for Arauz because, in his opinion, “this country has to continue doing the pending works.”

(c) EFE Agency

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