Some consultants call them the “disenchanted.” Others, the “disappointed”. But beyond the linguistic variant, the data is political: a new national survey ignited another alert for Alberto Fernandez and confirmed that the President is losing support among its own voters.
The study confirming this trend is from University of San Andrés (Udesa), which published four very detailed studies during 2020 and allow us to see the evolution of different key parameters.
Clarion advanced this Wednesday part of the December survey Accident. There the alarm sounded not only for the leader of the Front of All, but for the bulk of politicians. Out of 20 leaders evaluated, they failed 19. Only the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, got away.
The university polls were done in January, July, October and December, each one with more than 1,000 cases in all the country. The trend of the different parameters linked to the President was similar. It started well (January), improved with the first months of the pandemic (July), then fell (October) and at the end of the year it maintained that negative inertia (December).
Regarding the qualitative analysis, the change was even more abrupt: Fernández went from having a positive image among voters of Juntos por el Cambio to defrauding part of his own voters.
One of the first (and basic) questions asked by the study of Accident is to consult your respondents on the general progress of things. Are they satisfied or dissatisfied? A lot or a little?
Between total respondents, the satisfied ones (“a lot” or “something”) went from 38% in January to 22% in December. And the dissatisfied (also “a lot” or “somewhat”), from 56% to 76%.
When the clipping was done among voters K, the numbers were clearly better for the President, but they also reflected a decrease. At the beginning of the year there were 84% satisfied and 11% dissatisfied; and on the end, 58% and 40%.
In all cases, to reach 100% they completed the “ns / nc”.
Then the poll moved on to a more specific topic for the President. The approval (or disapproval) of his management at the head of the Government. Four main response options were also given and the above logic was repeated.
Between total respondents, Fernandez started with positive differential: 50% approved his administration and 38% disapproved. By July there was already parity (+ 49% and – 46%), in October the balance turned red (+ 35% and – 62%) and by December the fall was accentuated (+ 32% and – 65%).
Part of this nonconformity was also reflected by the followers of the Frente de Todos. In January, he idyll it was almost absolute: 95% approved and only 5% failed it. For him close of 2020, although the result was kept in green, the numbers were not so strong: + 79% and – 21%.
The presidential image
Finally, the survey addresses the personal image of the President. In this case, Accident does not specify numbers based on political affinity. But the general figures confirm the fall that Fernández had in the year.
In this case, the decline in the figures had a double impact. In absolute terms (the decrease itself) and in relative terms (how the President fell in the ranking against other leaders).
In january and july, with 52 and 55 positive image points, was enough to point the table against 20 other politicians. In october and december, with 37% and 34%, dropped to fifth place. In addition, of course, losing the privilege of being one of the few referents with more valuation in favor than against.