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SURVEY-Analysts cut gold price forecast amid economic recovery

Por Sumita Layek

BENGALURU, Apr 27 (Reuters) – Analysts and traders have cut their forecasts for the price of gold, as many believe it is unlikely to return to last year’s all-time highs as the economic recovery tarnishes the metal’s appeal as a shelter, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

* Spot gold has fallen to about $ 1,775 an ounce from an all-time high of $ 2,072.50 hit in August, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies and forced central banks to pump money into markets and cut back. Interest rates.

* Yields on government bonds, an asset that competes with gold, tumbled last year, but returns on U.S. Treasuries have rebounded, fueling speculation about a tightening of monetary policy by central banks. ahead of schedule, which would damage the ingot.

* The survey of 42 analysts and traders returned an average forecast for gold of $ 1,784 an ounce for this year and $ 1,743 for 2022, which is a sharp decline from the projections of $ 1,925 and $ 1,908, respectively, in a survey. similar made three months ago.

* “Most of the drivers (for the upside) are fading,” said Societe Generale analyst Florent Pele.

* However, analysts argued that interest in gold could be rekindled by events such as a weakening US dollar, rising inflation, falling equity markets, or a wave of coronavirus infections large enough to derail the economic growth.

* They also pointed out that a revival in demand for gold in Asia, after the drop suffered at the beginning of the pandemic, would prevent prices from falling too low.

* Meanwhile, the survey forecasts that silver will average $ 25.75 an ounce this year – versus a forecast of $ 25.86 in the previous survey – and $ 25 by 2022.

(Edited in Spanish by Javier Leira)

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