DUBAI, Mar 31 (Reuters) – OPEC + lowered its forecast for oil demand for 2021 by 300,000 barrels per day, reflecting concerns about the market recovery amid a wave of new coronavirus lockdowns, a meeting report showed of its panel of experts to which Reuters had access.
The Joint Technical Committee, which advises the group of oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, met on Tuesday, ahead of Thursday’s ministerial meeting to decide on oil production policy.
“Despite the current reduction in OECD commercial stocks, they remain above the 2015-2019 average, while recognizing that the prevailing volatility in the market structure is a sign of the fragility of stocks. market conditions, “the panel said in the report.
Under his baseline scenario, he now expects oil demand to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day this year, 300,000 bpd less than his previous forecast. It also raised its supply growth forecast by 200,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd.
As a result, he now expects oil inventories in the industrialized world to fall below the 2015-2019 average in August, a month later than he had previously predicted.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC +, is currently cutting production by just over 7 million bpd in a bid to support prices and reduce excess supply. Saudi Arabia has added an additional 1 million bpd to those cuts.
Riyadh is prepared to support expanding these cuts and prolonging its own voluntary cuts, a source told Reuters on Monday.
In an analysis note, JP Morgan said that it believes OPEC + will exercise caution by greatly extending its production cuts in May and that Saudi Arabia will extend its further reduction until the end of June.
FIGURE: OECD Commercial Oil Inventories https://tmsnrt.rs/2O6YnUg
CHART: OPEC Market Balances + https://tmsnrt.rs/2OcRNf8
Saudi Arabia wants OPEC + to extend supply cuts through June: sources
JP Morgan plans to renew OPEC + pact until May and that Saudi Arabia will extend cuts for two months
(Reporting by Rania El Gamal and Ahmad Ghaddar; edited in Spanish by Carlos Serrano)