Sunday December 27, 2020
Low values can be deceiving
RKI reports around 13,800 new infections
The nationwide vaccination campaign officially starts this Sunday. The numbers from the RKI also stir up hope that the wave of infections will flatten out. However, the institute warns: Due to the holidays, the numbers are only partially comparable with the values of the previous week.
On Boxing Day, the German health authorities reported a total of 13,755 new corona infections. In addition, 356 more deaths were recorded within 24 hours, as the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced. However, these numbers are only partially comparable with the values of the previous week, since the RKI expected a lower number of tests and fewer reports from the health authorities during the holidays.
Exactly one week ago, 22,771 new infections were reported within one day. The highest number of deaths of 952 was registered on Wednesday last week (December 16).
The number of new infections reported to the health authorities within seven days per 100,000 inhabitants (seven-day incidence) is currently 161.3. Its previous high was reached on Tuesday at 197.6. However, the differences between the federal states are enormous: Saxony has the highest incidences with 375.8 and Thuringia with 290.2, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has the lowest value with 77.5.
“The R-value is underestimated”
The RKI counted 1,640,858 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 in Germany since the beginning of the pandemic. The total number of people who died with or with a proven Sars-CoV-2 infection rose to 29,778 as of Sunday. The RKI stated the number of people recovered to be around 1,236,700.
According to the RKI report, the nationwide seven-day R-value is 0.89 (Thursday: 0.97). There was no situation report on Friday because of the holiday. This R value means that 100 infected people infect 89 other people. The value represents the occurrence of the infection 8 to 16 days ago. If it is below 1 for a long time, the infection process subsides. In its report on Saturday, however, the RKI pointed out that Covid cases are only displayed, recorded and transmitted with a delay during the holidays, “so that the R-value may also be underestimated”.
Note: The RKI figures usually deviate slightly from the case data that ntv.de reports daily in the evening. The ntv.de data team has direct access to the registration figures from the federal states, as published by the local ministries and authorities. The RKI, on the other hand, is bound to the legally prescribed reporting channels, which can lead to a delay.
In addition, the respective daily values map different recording periods: the ntv evaluation collects the country information published by the evening and uses this to calculate a daily status of the reported number of cases, which is usually published from 8 p.m. The RKI’s recording system, on the other hand, takes into account incoming reports up to midnight, with the current data status being announced the following morning.
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