Sanitary protocols must be maintained to avoid contagions.
The average daily cases of coronavirus reported in the City of Buenos Aires (CABA) and in the province of Buenos Aires in the last 21 days increased 190% and 120%, respectively, warned specialists who stressed the importance of sustaining care to mitigate regrowth.
“The average number of daily cases reported in the last 21 days in CABA went from 260 to 755 and in the province 1,241 to 2,767. The growth started after the first week of December and it is a very worrying situation because it is very marked”Corrientes Senator Martín Barrionuevo told Télam, who follows the evolution of the pandemic since its inception throughout the country.
In this scenario, the president, Alberto Fernández, met with the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof, and with the Buenos Aires head of government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, to analyze the increase in cases in the region.
“We are going to let the end of the year pass and from next week we are going to look with a magnifying glass to see how we solve this,” Fernández said in statements with Radio 10, and reported that he will hold new meetings with the mandatories next week to take eventual measures.
For his part, the infectious disease doctor Martín Hojman, who works at the Rivadavia Hospital in the City of Buenos Aires, agreed that an increase in cases has been seen in recent days, although he said: “It is an observation and I cannot assure that it is a trend, but it happens. “
In the same sense, the teacher and researcher Soledad Retamar, pointed out that “In the province of Buenos Aires, the daily average is 2,767 cases and 52 deaths; in CABA it is 755 cases and 10 deaths, similar to October 14 in cases and at the end of November in deceased.”
Specialists maintain that distance and the use of a chinstrap must be respected.
The specialist, who is part of the Database Research Group (GIBD) of the Concepción del Uruguay Regional School of the National Technological University (UTN), explained that “in the last week CABA had 36% growth in cases with respect to to the previous week, and PBA 17%. Until December 10, these percentages were negative, that is, fewer cases were reported each week than the previous one. “
Barrionuevo, who analyzes data since the pandemic began, indicated that “In the rest of the country the most complicated situation is in Patagonia, where there are many cases in relation to the population, although they may not be growing that much except for some jurisdictions. “
Furthermore, he noted that “La Pampa has also been growing a lot in number of cases” and that “in the north of the country is where the situation is better, both in the NOA and the NEA, despite the fact that Corrientes and Chaco continue with many cases.”
Another way to analyze the situation in the provinces is based on an indicator used in Spain to assess risk.
“What this indicator does is take the new cases reported in the last 14 days, add them and divide them by population. The one with the highest incidence of new cases per hundred thousand inhabitants in this period of time was Santa Cruz (1,106), followed through La Pampa (852), Chubut (716), Tierra del Fuego (696), Neuquén (499), Río Negro (459), Santa Fe (337) and CABA (298); in all of them the risk is extreme based on to this indicator, “explained Retamar.
According to this measurement, in “high risk of transmission” would be San Juan (214), PBA (205), Entre Ríos (204), Corrientes (178), Chaco (192), and Córdoba (157); whereas with medium risk are Catamarca (114), Tucumán (113), San Luis (85), Santiago del Estero (72) and Mendoza (67).
“The only provinces considered ‘new normal’ are Formosa (2) and Jujuy (11) and with low risk would be Misiones (26), La Rioja (31) and Salta (40),” described Retamar.
“Social behavior is different from what we had two months ago. On the one hand there is very high mobility and on the other we are taking care of ourselves less”
Another fact that worries the specialists is the slight increase in the occupation of intensive therapies. “At some point we were below 3,000 cases, today we are above 3,400, it is not so marked, but it could increase in the coming days,” they said.
Asked about the causes of these outbreaks, Hojman – a member of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI) – indicated that “there may be various factors; on the one hand, in the City people are swabbing more because in several tourist places they ask for PCR to enter, but there is also a relaxation of social behaviors, the feeling of danger and an openness to many activities. “
In the same sense, Barrionuevo pointed out that “social behavior is different from what we had two months ago; on the one hand there is a high mobility and on the other we are taking care of ourselves less, with people going on vacation and meeting at homes for the holidays, that it is where we least take care of ourselves “.
“In this context, taking extreme care measures is essential. The so-called second wave is going to happen at some point; it not only happened in Europe but is also arriving in neighboring countries such as Brazil, Colombia or Chile; even so, if the be careful, we are in time to lower the cases a bit in January and February, taking advantage of the weather permitting “, Held.
Hojman considered that “the second wave seems inevitable”: “we saw it in Europe and the north and there is no reason to think that it will not arrive here; then it is a time to be vigilant”.
For his part, Retamar said that “I don’t know if it is possible to speak of a second wave when it was never possible to lower than 5,000 daily cases.”
And he continued: “What is clear is that, despite this large number of cases, many activities began to be enabled when the virus was still circulating. Today the regrowth is evident and if we do not take extreme care, it can be worse than in October when we hit the highs. “
“The vaccine will lessen the severity of a small number of cases, but there is still a long way to go before we can talk about a controlled situation. So the only way to compensate for that is with individual care and social responsibility, “he concluded.