Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a price breakout after overcoming volatility, but April may still produce a surprise sell-off.
In its last market update on April 2, filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader operations suite, He said that he now expects the BTC / USD pair to take over.
BTC “threatens a breakout”
Bitcoin has rebounded from its sudden drop earlier in the week and briefly hit $ 60,000 overnight on Friday.
With seven-day gains still at 13%, there are many reasons to be optimistic in the short term now that the consolidation appears to be nearing completion, argues filbfilb.
“With the weekend looming in the middle of a favorable week, it’s hard not to be optimistic.”, summarized.
“I don’t think we’re going to break up so fiercely, but I do think we’re on the verge of a strong break.”
One comparison worth noting is what happened to Bitcoin when it originally broke the $ 20,000 resistance. A pattern of sudden breakouts after a prolonged period of consolidation and retracement could end up characterizing the $ 60,000 as well.
“A few weeks ago I shared this market / price action structure similar to what was seen around the $ 20k level, which had a correction back to c.50k before a violent breakout.”, continued filbfilb.
“Since then the price has played almost perfectly with this idea and now threatens a breakout.”
Bulls should be aware of Coinbase IPO and option expiration
However, this breakout faces challenges in the coming weeks. Coinbase, fully prepared for its initial public offering (IPO) on April 14, may inadvertently trigger downward pressure on prices.
As was the case this week with London-based Deliveroo, the debut of an IPO often results in a sale up front, with the implications clear for Bitcoin.
“We may see an increase in volatility around this time frame on April 14 and we should pay particular attention to the time from here until options expire at the end of the month.”, concludes filbfilb.
Option expiration at the end of the month can also temporarily scare the spot price, which was very much in evidence at the end of March, when the options to expire reached a record of $ 6 billion. However, in the end, the actual event itself had no impact on BTC’s performance.
“Much more bull market to come”, forecast statistician Willy Woo.
Woo cited the active BTC supply data from on-chain analytics service Glassnode, which also suggests that Bitcoin may rise further before the old hodlers make a profit, causing a cycle stop.
Regardless of the impact of Coinbase’s IPO on the market this month, analyst doesn’t see Bitcoin closing below $ 46,400 anytime soon. He said:
“$ 46.4k is the price that I am modeling and that we will not visit again during this bull market (daily close).”