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Although Mexico breaks records due to covid, the worst is just coming, they warn

With 1,165 deaths and 13,345 cases confirmed this Wednesday, Mexico recorded the highest daily figures in nearly 11 months of pandemic of covid-19; however, specialists warned that what we are seeing is only “the beginning of the worst part” of the pandemic and that the following weeks it is possible that more deaths and contagion.

Mexico is close to 130 thousand deaths from coronavirus, since this afternoon 129 thousand 987 were reported deaths, which are 1,165 more than yesterday, the highest increase in deaths in one day. The same situation is repeated with confirmed cases, which add up to one million 479 thousand 835, that is, 13 thousand 345 more.

“If our calculations do not fail, as of today the highest daily increase in cases of covid-19 in Mexico. We estimate that on the days with the highest registration we could have between 25,000 and 30,000 cases per day between January 15 and February 25, 2021“said the Global Atmospheric Monitoring Agency (AMAG) which is part of the Institute for Geological and Atmospheric Research.

Specialists interviewed by The Broken Chair indicated that it is complex to define a trend of how the coronavirus cases in the following weeks, but they agreed that the situation will worsen during January.

Xavier Tello, analyst and health policy consultant, highlighted that the situation is quite critical because Mexico has never managed to control the pandemic and currently it is going at an accelerated speed as it happens in other parts of the world.

“The next two weeks I think we are going to find a worsening, I do not like to talk about the most difficult because you are saying that the easiest thing comes later or that we have already reached the top and the bad news is that I do not know which one will be the top. Where they are counting well (the cases) they have it out of control, in the United States it is horrible, Europe is horrible, England is horrible, we are practically going to follow the same pattern, “he emphasized.

The Doctor of Mathematical Sciences, Arturo Erdely, who has promptly followed up on the official figures, explained that based on the analysis of the information, January is going to be a difficult month, although the models are sensitive to slight changes.

“With the trend towards the end of the year, it seems that the worst could be January and it will begin to decline in February, but that projection does not take into account the emergence of this new variant of the virus that we still do not know how strong it can become. hitting. Maybe the movie we’re watching in the UK today we could be watching in Mexico, I don’t know if with greater or less intensity, “he said.

“THERE IS NO REASON FOR THE CONTAGES

Tello recalled that in the Mexico City hospitals are already practically saturated, people can take between 12 and 18 hours looking for a bed and there are not enough medicines to intubate patients.

“Obviously we have never had sufficient resources to face it and at this moment we are seeing the beginning of the worst part. We see that the hospitals are practically saturated in the Mexico City“, he pointed.

He warned that this situation must be added to the people who were infected during Christmas and New YearThose people who held a meeting or party despite the capital authorities urging them not to.

“I’m expecting this to get worse next week, unfortunately I don’t see when this can go down, but more importantly because there is no reason for it to go down. If you don’t cut contacts, you can’t control the epidemic and as of today people are still free in the streets, “criticized the specialist.

NEW VARIANT OF COVID MAY GENERATE A MAJOR FLAT, ALERT

Erdely explained that official figures have shown unstable behavior since November, mainly in the Mexico City and the State of Mexico, which can be attributed, in part, to the fact that the results of rapid tests began to be included.

However, in addition to the unstable figures, the specialist pointed out that another aspect to consider is the new variant of the virus that was reported in the United Kingdom, which has not yet been confirmed to reach our country, but when it is officially detected it could and have been advancing in the national territory for some time.

He recalled that it is a more contagious variant, although less lethal, “which is not a consolation, because in itself we have a high level of contagion and if a variant is added that will be more contagious apart, it can generate a rebound. very important in Mexico and in general in the American Continent “.

According to the estimates of the AMAG, between now and January 12, the first case of this variant of the virus Sars-CoV2 and it would be the cause of the increase in the number of infected people during the following weeks.

“VACCINES ARE NOT GOING TO AVOID MANY DEATHS”

The AMAG He pointed out that if vaccination continues as it has been until now and restriction measures are not increased, by the end of this year 60% of Mexicans will have been infected and that the deaths could be 800 thousand.

Regarding deaths from coronavirusTello pointed out that there is an under-registration, but in official figures, at least this Tuesday, more than a thousand deaths were reported, which if multiplied by the calculation that has been made of 2.85, would imply that in one day about 3,000 people died.

To put that figure into context, he explained that a thousand people are approximately the passengers that fit on eight planes, so the reported deaths would be equivalent to eight aircraft crashing daily.

“In the entire armed conflict of the Syrian War, from 2011 to date, 206 thousand people have died, that is, we could be reaching all the dead of the Syrian War in one year. If we don’t see this as a maximum emergency, we are going to continue doing the same thing, “he stressed.

The specialist in health policies indicated that the vaccination against covid is a factor in favor, but it will take a long time for us to see the effect, in addition, he said that the vaccine alone does not solve anything if the appropriate measures are not taken, such as use of mask.

While Erdely carried out a model on the impact of vaccination on the advancement of pandemic. “What I found in that analysis is that it will no longer be able to avoid many deaths. It will avoid some, but the truth is that not so many due to the rate set in the vaccination strategy announced at the end of last year “.

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