Alberto Fernández appears for the first time with almost the same image as Mauricio Macri

The evolution of the image of Alberto Fernandez, who in his first year in office had to face an unprecedented pandemic in the modern era, had already been drawing a parable so oscillating that it almost became a subject of statistical study. A new measurement, from a consulting firm that updates its numbers daily, brings another surprise. For the first time since he assumed, he equates the assessment of the figure of the President with that of his predecessor and back, Mauricio Macri.

The study you accessed Clarion and what this scenario shows is from MOVE, a firm with 15 years in the market and that even worked for the management of Cambiemos. Today he has clients on both sides of the rift. It is a survey of 1,000 cases at the national level, with a +/- 3.5% margin of error. The last “cut” to update the numbers was made on December 23rd.

The report begins with two contextual data that anticipate, in its own way, the blow for the figure of Fernández. On the one hand, they asked people “how is the country compared to last year” and 68% answered “worse”. It is the highest negative number in the entire series, which starts at the end of March.

Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri embrace in Congress, during the transfer of command on 12/10/19.  Gabriela Michetti, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa complete the scene.

Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri embrace in Congress, during the transfer of command on 12/10/19. Gabriela Michetti, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa complete the scene.

Expectations are also balanced against. When it was raised “How will the country be in a year?”, 54% were pessimistic. Although it was not a record, it was among the worst records of 2020.

In both cases, there is a significant drop in the numbers compared to the previous week (cut of 12/15). That also appears in the President’s image data and is what ends up configuring this unprecedented parity with Macri.

Fernandez combines in the last measurement 39% positive and 58% negative and the leader of Together for Change, + 40% and – 57%. Statistically a technical tie.

The image of Alberto Fernández, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

The image of Alberto Fernández, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

Mauricio Macri's image, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

Mauricio Macri’s image, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

In addition to the resignation of the President, his predecessor had an improvement. This crossing of variables equaled them: in the measurement that closed on 12/15, Fernández had + 46% and – 50% and Macri, + 35% and – 62%. Clear advantage for the leader of the Frente de Todos.

The image data is usually oscillating and moves according to pure current data: a skyrocketing or falling dollar, a political fight or an unfortunate statement. Now you might wonder, for example, what impact the approval of the legalization of abortion had, so celebrated in the Government.

But beyond this specific photo, it is interesting to look the evolution of the figures of these two protagonists of the crack. While Macri always had more negative image than positive and considerably more stable figures, Fernandez He showed more abrupt movements. It started in March with more than 70 valuation points in favor, maintained them until May and began to fall, so steadily that it began to have a negative image balance.

The image of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

The image of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

“These are our numbers, in an IVR measurement. What we see in general is that except for Larreta, the rest have an image with a clearly negative balance,” they explained in MOVE a Clarion.

The mention of the study methodology has its explanation. IVR is a system of automatic calls, through a machine, that can be left on 24 hours a day and permanently update the figures. But it has a bias: it relies on landlines and does not reach very poor or young sectors. These are two audiences closest to Kirchnerism.

That is why many consulting firms began to combine this methodology with online systems, cell phones or even social networks. Especially after the widespread blunder that occurred in 2019, when for the PASO a much smaller average advantage was predicted than the Fernández duo Macri and Pichetto finally ended up taking them out.

The image of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

The image of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

Some analysts believe that one of the reasons is that it was necessary to survey those poor and young, more difficult to capture because of the places where they live and / or because they are more reluctant to answer surveys. The face-to-face variable is very expensive and now with the pandemic it has been almost ruled out.

The other polls that I was able to read and was publishing Clarion coincide in putting Horacio Rodríguez Larreta as the leader with the best image in the country, although they usually place Fernández in a second step, clearly above Axel Kicillof, Cristina Kirchner and Macri. In many of those studies the former president is the worst viewed. That is why these numbers attract attention. Evolution will have to be followed.

For MOVE, Larreta has + 57% and – 33%, Kicillof + 30% and – 63% and Cristina + 32% and – 66%.

Inheritance and context

The study compares Fernández and Macri again with respect to the context in which they had to develop their first year of management. Start at the beginning: Who received the worst inheritance? For 48%, the leader of Together for Change and for 41%, that of the Front of All.

Comparison of the context in which Alberto and Macri ruled the first year, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

Comparison of the context in which Alberto and Macri ruled the first year, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

The comparison of the inheritance of Alberto and Macri, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

The comparison of the inheritance of Alberto and Macri, according to the latest MOVE national survey, updated until December 23.

AND who had a more adverse context to govern during your first year in office? For 46% Fernández and for 32%, Macri. It is in this last question that the presence of the crack seems clearest, since although the majority elect the current President, the difference is not so great if the exceptionality and complexity that the pandemic posed (and poses) is taken into account.

Look also

New electoral poll: how is the Frente de Todos vs.  Together for the Change in Nation, Province and City
Look also

Three consulting firms measured Máximo Kirchner: how he did in Nation, Province and City

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