Bitcoin (BTC) price looks shaky at the start of a new week as $ 60,000 remains out of reach. However, could anything change in the next few days?
After an average weekend that hasn’t gotten the breakout many hoped for, Bitcoin price clings to the $ 50,000 range.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that can help shape future price behavior.
Coinbase’s IPO is a beacon in a flat macro sea
Stock markets weren’t impressive on Monday, April 5; many Asian markets are closed for holidays and US futures see little movement.
After the Suez Canal debacle, Oil was the only raw material with notable energy, as the decision of the OPEC + countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
With the lack of momentum available, Bitcoin therefore had little to sustain any macroeconomically influenced price race, and the $ 60,000 resistance was still standing at the time of this writing.
Nevertheless, A major development that cryptanalysts eagerly await is Coinbase’s initial public offering, set for April 14.
As Cointelegraph reported, The event is a milestone for the industry, but it could be accompanied by the sale on launch day, a practice seen with other IPOs both old and new.
On the other hand, Rising US bond yields continued to be a cause for concern this week, as their upward trajectory coincided with the lack of progress for safe havens in general.
“The revaluation of inflation risk and US rates, which will affect the discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are valued, is a source of uncertainty“Johanna Chua, Citigroup Global Markets chief economist, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the rate of the vaccines and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is in “$ 3,000-5,000 stage” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin price may be struggling for new support, but hodlers need to see the real picture.
That was the mood of analysts on Monday, as BTC / USD headed lower towards $ 56,000.
After challenging the $ 60,000 again late on Friday, bearish movements prevailed over the weekend, culminating in a drop to $ 56,500.
A subsequent bounce was weak – the $ 57,000 formed a temporary focal point at the time of writing this article.
“The battle of support resistance is intense“the Whalemap data chain service added about the current behavior on Sunday.
“Last week’s levels are working quite well. The $ 60,045 level is capping Bitcoin. Is this the calm before the storm? “
For popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, however, there was little reason to be bearish on longer terms, which are supported by a stretch of positive data in the chain.
“This bull run for Bitcoin is still far from overheating in multiple indicators on the chain”, summarized.
“Compared to 2017, it looks like we are around the $ 3,000-5,000 range.”
Clemente uploaded a comparison chart showing Bitcoin price highs in 2013 and 2017 via the Puell Multiple, a classic metric that keeps signaling that there is room for growth before a profit-taking sale can begin.
Such an early position in the bull cycle implies that Most of the upside price performance is yet to come for Bitcoin, something that would lend credibility to some of the highest year-end forecasts – $ 288,000 and up.
Nobody is selling
As for the issue of selling miners, it is a habit that has not yet reappeared this month. Despite Bitcoin holding near all-time highs along with the network’s hash rate and mining difficulty, there is no appetite to take profit from mined coins yet, data shows.
Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, The change in miners’ net position has signaled that miners have held onto their newly acquired coins for the past week.
Conversely, The year 2021 has been marked by sales, especially in January, when Bitcoin reached $ 40,000 for the first time. Nevertheless, sales have since stalled, despite continued – albeit slower – price increases.
“Not yet sold, still accumulated, clear trend”, commented quantum analyst Lex Moskovski on Glassnode’s figures.
Along with the miners come exchanges, which continue to see their BTC balances decline. Traders, therefore, are no more interested in selling at close to $ 60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose Bitcoin ETF is approaching 17,000 BTC holdings
This month, Institutions have been remarkably bullish, putting their money where their mouth is, according to the latest figures.
Open Interest in Bitcoin Futures Markets Nearing All-Time Highs, and institutional grade products continue to be in high demandeven if the price is right.
A) Yes, Canada’s first authorized Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, continues to add BTC at the rate of its Assets Under Management (AUM).
As of April 5, Purpose had 16,462 BTC and C $ 22.1 billion ($ 17.56 billion) in AUM, although it launched its ETF just two months ago.
As Cointelegraph reported, the United States is likely to pressure to follow Canada in authorizing an ETF in the market; such a product would receive multiples of what Purpose has been able to obtain from institutions in its home jurisdiction.
All of this, however, could come at the expense of a staunch institutional actor, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In a battle for commissions, GBTC may be losing interest to the cheaper Purpose, which is one of the many Bitcoin offerings that lower management costs for customers.
Time to channel “situational awareness”
In a classic sign that the mantra of “the longer the outlook, the better” is still best for Bitcoiners, the popular stock-to-flow price forecasting model is still right on the trail of $ 288,000 and up.
As its creator, quantum analyst PlanB pointed out on Sunday, the model’s “up / down recognition signal” is coincidentally repeating its 2013 and 2017 moves.
An accompanying chart showed the spot price of BTC / USD following its predicted trajectory, with no signs that the model was being invalidated by the short-term rumor below $ 60,000.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version that places Bitcoin in the context of other macro assets and tracks its transformation into a new standard.
“My favorite graphic for situational awareness”, wrote PlanB in the comments.
“S2FX for the approximate forecast of long-term levels (white line), combined with an accurate bullish / bearish recognition signal in the chain (color overlap).”
The S2FX forecasts a price of $ 288,000 by the end of 2021, which constitutes an average price in the current halving cycle that will be completed approximately in April 2024. The price spike before then, by contrast, could be twice the median or $ 576,000, PlanB has said.
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